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Investigation of a Hydrodynamic Forecast Model as a Predictor of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics Near Public Water System Intakes in the Central Basin of Lake Erie

Author(s): Rowe, M.D.; E.J. Anderson; S.A. Ruberg; E.M. Verhamme; D. Beletsky; H. Zhang; T.H. Johengen; C.A. Stow

NCCOS Center: CSCOR

Name of Publisher: Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography

Publication Type: Abstract

Journal Title: ASLO 2017 Aquatic Sciences Meeting, Feb. 26 - Mar. 3, 2017, Honolulu, HI

Date of Publication: 2017

Reference Information: Conference Program

Extent of Work: 1 p.

Keywords: Lake Erie; hypoxia; public water systems; forecasting; dissolved oxygen; hydrodynamics

Abstract: Lake Erie provides drinking water to 11 million people through >30 public water systems (PWS). Hypoxia and harmful algal blooms have increased in severity since the early 2000s. Lake dynamics, including seiche, internal waves, and upwelling-downwelling, can expose PWS intakes alternately to epilimnetic or hypolimnetic water over a few hours, potentially changing dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, organic matter, iron, and manganese levels at the intake. Treatment processes must be adjusted to ensure continuous quality of treated water; thus, a forecast could benefit PWS operators. We are beginning a project to develop a forecast of short-term hypoxia dynamics near PWS intakes. In 2016, an updated Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS), using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model, became operational, providing nowcast and 120 hour forecast of 3-D currents and temperature. Since 2007, sensors have been maintained 22 km offshore of Cleveland (22-m depth) to provide real-time bottom DO and water temperature profiles, with an additional bottom DO sensor added in 2016 (6-km offshore, 16-m depth). Hypoxia initiated in mid July or early August and continued until late September. Initiation was earlier at the shallower station, consistent with empirical models relating hypoxia to hypolimnion thickness. Observed interruptions in hypoxia were associated with the epilimnion contacting the bottom. Events were forecast two to three days in advance, showing potential utility of LEOFS hydrodynamic forecasts to predict lake dynamics associated with changing water quality at PWS intakes.

Availability: Available from NCCOS Publications Explorer and from the publisher.

Reference: https://www.sgmeet.com/aslo/honolulu2017/viewabstract.asp?AbstractID=28761


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